Physical doll: the entrance to the next wave of industrial revolution?
Sex is the entrance of disease, of relationship, of dispute and jealousy, as it has been since human beings. In the next 20 years, it may also be the entrance of the next wave of industrial revolution.
In 2017, several companies will launch physical dolls equipped with artificial intelligence, which will be the first widely commercialized humanoid robots used in daily life. In particular, a large number of films and novels foreshadow that the world full of robots may enter the real world from the gap of "sex".
In fact, we can foresee that this kind of physical dolls will not only be a commodity in the mall, but will develop a whole industrial chain: from materials to machinery, from hardware to software, and from materials to services. However, what are the opportunities behind this? Shall we skip or grasp? Are you involved? For many enterprises, professionals and young people who are thinking about the future, it has become a subject worthy of serious consideration.
The next wave of OEM: creating people?
From the hardware point of view, although we are not the creators of artificial intelligence physical dolls, we may find many opportunities in this kind of new products because of our detailed division and excellent manufacturing.
Behind the appearance of physical dolls, there is an industry chain to be shaped. Artificial hair is a very common commodity now. If it is used on a real doll, the material should be more realistic. The production of the doll's eyes is quite simple, but it is likely to be standardized in the future. For example, the eyes will be connected to the lens and the doll's "brain".
Robots with physiological demands will pay more and more attention to the simulation of muscles and bones. Now, the muscles simulated by silicone can be close to reality in elasticity and touch. However, although the current technology can meet the requirements, the threshold and cost are still high, but it is likely to be the focus of future raw material suppliers' competition.
When the competition for physical dolls becomes more intense, small details such as teeth and lips will also be the focus of the competition for fidelity. However, the oral cavity is much more complex than other parts of the body, especially those parts where the nerve sensitivity is the highest in the whole body, and slight defects can be felt. How the mouth can cooperate with speech and movement, and how to affect the smile to express feelings, are far from enough. There is still a lot of room for optimization.
In terms of internal architecture, each AI entity doll will be a powerful computer, connected with a set of equipment, so that it can turn its head and move its limbs. The parts and systems needed for this set of equipment are potential business opportunities. However, it is more difficult for a physical doll to stand and walk than to talk. At present, it is necessary to use an extremely expensive motor to support human beings to move around, and because of the high consumption, the battery has to take up a lot of space. In recent years, the efficiency of the battery has been improved year by year, and the motor technology has also been innovated, and the cost has been gradually reduced. It is believed that it will be more and more commercially valuable.
All of the above are biased towards science and engineering, belonging to the category of traditional science and technology industry or manufacturing industry. But then, there was a big difference.
Computer → mobile phone → robot
The basic function of artificial intelligence physical dolls, of course, should be "sex". But it is not easy to write a novel or script on this theme, and it will be more difficult to write a program. Secondly, it is more important to gather psychologists, medical experts, and even romantic novelists and screenwriters to study and create together. Anthropologists may also want to participate in social surveys, because different cultures and different categories of people have different visions and preferences.
The learnable AI system will be constantly fine tuned and optimized according to the user's response. The academic basis provided by experts in related fields can help shorten the learning process, and the data collected by AI can also be used for future research. In the future, if humanities scholars want to deeply understand people's inner world, they may not need social surveys, but they may have to enter artificial intelligence companies.
However, it seems too narrow to talk about sex. It is the same for people or robots.
In the future, artificial intelligence physical dolls will be an important service tool at home, just like mobile phones. However, mobile phones are strictly limited in size because they need to be carried around, but robots can be much larger. A robot that does not need to stand and move has an internal capacity of human size. Its head and body can operate, store and place batteries. It is much larger than a mobile phone, and has great potential to carry application software.
Just as talking is one of the functions of a mobile phone, even a physical doll, "sex" will only be one of many functions. The system characteristics of robots will take dialogue as the main interactive interface, but the bottleneck in this regard is not hardware but software. Although both radio and broadcast modules are quite mature at present, it is still difficult to let the doll analyze the audio heard and translate it into a language that can be understood by the machine, or let the machine's response be expressed in human language. At present, a large amount of resources have been invested in language processing technology research and development, especially in English, which has achieved remarkable results and involves various languages. In the next decade, it can be predicted that more language researchers and software experts will be required to cooperate in order to break the language gap between humans and between humans and robots.
When dolls and humans can communicate orally, dolls can install a large number of APPs. For example, if we want them to accompany the elderly and children, we need to develop software that is patient, can tell soothing and encouraging words, can tell interesting stories, and even read books and report current events. When designing these, we need educational experts, psychologists, and even social workers.
At that time, functions such as housekeeper and secretary may also be developed. For example, when the robot couple hears "Please check for me", it will start the search function; Start the secretary function when you hear "Please arrange it for me"; When everyone is not at home, the robot will activate the security function.
New style of selling, immortal
The important direction of related industries is, on the one hand, to diversify their functions, and on the other hand, to make man-made people "become" all kinds of appearances we hope. Behind this, there are all kinds of opportunities.
From the most external point of view, in order to make dolls, the physical doll company has hired some models with good figure as the body models of dolls. In addition to the model fees, I can also get profit dividends for every one sold in the future. According to this model, it is believed that in the near future, Japanese actresses will also start to authorize their body image to be imitated, and their faces will be the next step, while local photo stars will follow suit. After that, movie stars, singers and even political figures may not be too far away. As long as the appearance is conducive to sales and prices, there will be a market.
After appearance, there will be voice, and after voice, there will be personality. Because some people hope that the doll in his family will not only look like a real person, but also sound like a real person. They hope that it will also speak in a similar way and have a similar personality. The value chain behind this includes not only those public figures who provide body shape, voice and personality traits, but also those technology providers who produce data, as well as brokerage and sales terminals.
Illusion and separation, head lowering and attachment
When the appearance, voice and personality can be customized, the next intelligent physical doll will be further "personalized", that is, customized at a high price, not for sex, but for commemoration. The deceased relatives, lovers, friends, highly respected celebrities, and respected leaders may be willing to pay a lot of money to preserve their appearance and thinking, which may be for commemoration or to maintain some kind of centripetal force. Behind this, there are opportunities for craftsmen, psychologists and language experts to develop their talents.
Perhaps in the future, we may see entrepreneurs making speeches at 50 power building venues at the same time. Which is true? Nobody knows. Is it really important? Similarly, in the future, people can travel thousands of miles through the Internet and attach themselves to a doll, whether it is teaching, meeting, chatting, nostalgia or sex. Each of these functions is an entrepreneurial opportunity.
Before today, technological revolution after technological revolution came "after it happened". When we found it, we could only catch up with it. This is true whether it is the power revolution, the computer revolution, or the latest mobile phone revolution. But this time, we can almost definitely predict that "home robots" will break through the bottleneck of initial purchase volume with sex as the starting point, and gradually become a common member of many families, organizations and institutions.
The only question now is: Are we ready? Are there any boundaries that we should defend in the current situation? Or is it impossible to defend?
--Reprinted from the public account: Entity doll combat experience
--Reprinted from the public account: Entity doll combat experience